The Sunday CharterN° 28Semaine close le 18 octobre 20266 minutesrevision 1

Nervousness returns, the markers hold

Two shifts mark this week: equities confirmed the solidity they were seeking, and Bitcoin left that solidity for the in-between. Market nervousness has risen markedly. Beneath this agitation, most positions keep the orientation held over the past weeks.

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

Equities moved into Constructive: the awaited confirmation has arrived.

Bitcoin steps back from this stance and enters Transition.

What changes

The nervousness anticipated by the market climbed sharply this week.

What to watch

Gold and government bonds remain below their long-term orientation, without notable movement.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Constructive

Equities move into Constructive after several weeks in the in-between. Last week, we noted that an advance carried by a greater number of names would take them out of this zone: that is what happened.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds are still moving below their long-term orientation, unchanged in their state. The lasting return above this trend, which we were awaiting as a sign of improvement, has not taken place.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold remains below its underlying trend and its gap widened further this week. The search for safety is not carrying it, even as market nervousness rises.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities remain Constructive and extend their advance above their underlying orientation. It is the market furthest above its long trend.

Bitcoin

Transition

Bitcoin leaves the solid state it had held for several weeks to enter Transition. It remains above its underlying trend, but its momentum has weakened: speculative appetite is cooling.

The chart of the week

Equities hold their course

The level of US equities relative to their long-term trend, over the period shown

Hover or tap a point to read its value.

Line of the level of US equities relative to their long-term trend, remaining stable and above a dotted marker.

Read the chart in words

The line starts from a level above the trend line and holds there across the whole period shown, with moderate swings but without any reversal or clear break. The dotted marker represents the long-term trend, calculated only up to the last point and with no extension beyond it.

What we observe

The line stays broadly stable across the whole period shown, without any marked break or surge. It holds above the long-term trend marker drawn as a dotted line beside it.

Why it matters

A path that holds without interruption above its underlying orientation is what has just tipped this market into Constructive. Stability, here, is itself the information.

What not to conclude

The dotted marker stops at the last known point: it is not a forecast. The line says nothing about how many companies are taking part in the rise, nor about what the following week will do.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The markets

Understanding the first three pillars

Equities

US equities edged back over the week, but their state moves into Constructive.

This week

−2.0%

Since January

+12.6%

Long-term trend

+5.7%

The condition set last week — an advance leaning on more holdings rather than on a few — has been met, and that is what takes this market out of the in-between where it had been sitting for several weeks. A pullback over seven days does not erase this shift, but it is a reminder that confirming an underlying trend does not shield against short-term jolts.

What would change the reading A retreat that brought this market back below its long-term orientation would invalidate the confirmation gained this week.

Treasuries

US government bonds advanced over the week, without leaving their state under pressure.

This week

+1.1%

Since January

−3.0%

Long-term trend

−2.4%

They remain below their long-term orientation, and this week's improvement stays too limited to speak of a lasting return. The cushion came back into service slightly while equities gave ground, but one good reading does not on its own turn around an underlying slope tilted downward.

What would change the reading A return settled above this orientation, rather than a single good week, would mark a real improvement in their situation.

Gold

Gold edged lower and remains below its long-term trend.

This week

−0.7%

Since January

−4.1%

Long-term trend

−7.9%

Its gap from that trend has even widened, pushing the safe-haven asset a little further from a recovery. In a week when market nervousness rose markedly, gold did not play the fallback role usually attributed to it.

What would change the reading A rebound that would lastingly place it back above its long-term orientation would change the reading.

Commodities

Commodities rose over the week and keep their Constructive state.

This week

+2.4%

Since January

+50.7%

Long-term trend

+17.6%

They are widening their lead above their underlying trend, which remains the best established of the five markets followed. This cyclical market tracks real activity and supply tensions; its solidity holds for now, but the wider the gap from the trend grows, the more a simple return toward it can surprise.

What would change the reading A move below their long-term orientation would tip this reading over.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell over the week and leaves the Constructive state to enter Transition.

This week

−1.6%

Since January

−7.9%

Long-term trend

+12.7%

It is the only change of state this week: after several solid weeks, something has shifted without being settled. The asset remains above its long-term trend, and its gap from that trend has even narrowed; the Transition therefore speaks of hesitation, not of a break.

What would change the reading A break settled below its several-month orientation would bring its reading under pressure.

The market environment

US10Y 5.10%, −0.15pt: The long-term cost of money eased this week, a slight loosening after several firm weeks.
DXY 101.78, −0.4%: The dollar edged lower, which releases a little of the pressure on everything denominated in that currency.
VIX 19.99, +34.7%: The nervousness the market expects to go through jumped sharply, a sign that operators anticipate a more jolted period.

The discipline of the week

The week confirms an anticipated shift and opens another, without overturning anything essential.

The hoped-for confirmation on the equity side has arrived: their underlying momentum is now working in their favour, and this is the clearest development of these seven days.
In the other direction, speculative appetite is cooling: the digital asset moves from a position of confidence to an in-between one, after several well-held weeks.
The nervousness the market anticipates has jumped — a more tense backdrop worth keeping in mind, even when the underlying positions hold.

A week that settles matters more than it unsettles them: it validates one expectation, removes another from a market that had long carried it, and does so in a climate that has grown less calm. Nothing in it calls for a new move; it asks above all that each change be read for what it is, without mistaking it for a wholesale reversal.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.
They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.

Published by: Witan Way
Data as of: 16 octobre 2026
Methodology: witanway.com/methodology Read it
Interests & conflicts: declaration as at the publication date