Witan Way
Get notified

The Sunday CharterN° 27Semaine close le 11 octobre 20266 minutesrevision 1

Positions hold, the gaps sort themselves out

None of the five markets changes state this week, but the distance separating them from their long trend does not move in the same direction for all. Commodities and equities drift a little further upward; bitcoin, gold and government bonds move closer to their point of balance. The backdrop stays calm: market nervousness recedes once more.

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

The five markets keep the state held in previous weeks.

What changes is the distance to the long trend, not the ranking.

What changes

Commodities and equities widen their lead above their underlying orientation.

Gold, government bonds and bitcoin move closer to their long trend.

What to watch

The dollar rises slightly and the long-term cost of money eases barely at all.

Market nervousness recedes: nothing is pressing in the environment.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

The market stays in between: above its underlying trend, but without the confirmation that would settle the matter. Its lead over that trend has widened a little this week, which matters chiefly because the condition set, a rise carried by a greater number of names, is still not met.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Lending to the US state is still moving below its long-term orientation. The gap has narrowed, however, and the long-term cost of money eases very slightly, a loosening, not a return above the trend.

Gold

Under pressure

The safe haven stays below its long trend, but it moves closer to it after several weeks spent drifting away. This is the first move in the other direction for a while; it is not yet enough to change the reading.

Commodities

Constructive

The cyclical basket keeps its underlying trend oriented upward and its lead has widened again. The watched-for tipping point, a passage below the long-term orientation, remains far off.

Bitcoin

Constructive

The most speculative asset pulls back over the week but remains clearly above its long-term trend. Its gap has narrowed slightly without the underlying movement reversing.

The chart of the week

Commodities widen their lead

The cyclical basket and its underlying trend, over the period shown

Rising commodities curve staying above its dotted long-term trend line across the entire period shown. The curve starts from a low level on the left and climbs steadily toward the right. A dotted line, the long-term trend, follows the same direction but lower. The curve stays above this line across the whole period, and the gap between the two widens in the right-hand part. The dotted line stops at the last point of the curve. Commodities widen their lead The cyclical basket and its underlying trend, over the period shown Period Level 20.00 25.00 30.00 Oct 24 Apr 25 Oct 25 Apr 26 Oct 26 — — — long trend

Scroll the chart sideways, or read it in words below.

Rising commodities curve staying above its dotted long-term trend line across the entire period shown.
Read the chart in words

The curve starts from a low level on the left and climbs steadily toward the right. A dotted line, the long-term trend, follows the same direction but lower. The curve stays above this line across the whole period, and the gap between the two widens in the right-hand part. The dotted line stops at the last point of the curve.

What we observe

The curve rises across the entire period shown and holds above its long-term trend marker, drawn as a dotted line. The gap between the two does not close: it rather widens toward the end.

Why it matters

This basket follows real economic activity and supply tensions. A curve that moves durably above its underlying trend says the movement is not a mere jolt. That is what keeps this market in a constructive state, where the tipping point would be a move below this marker.

What not to conclude

The dotted marker is calculated over the period shown and stops at the last point: it extends nothing into the future. The curve does not say how long the gap will hold, nor which components (energy, metals, agriculture) carry the rise.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The markets

Understanding the first three pillars

Equities

US equities advanced this week while remaining in the in-between zone they have held for several weeks.

This week
+1.2%
Since January
+14.9%
Long-term trend
+8.2%

The market stays above its underlying trend and its lead over that trend has widened slightly. But the state has not settled: the rise continues without the reading tipping to the solid side.

What would change the reading An advance carried by a greater number of stocks, rather than a few, would take this market out of the in-between zone.

Treasuries

US government bonds gained a little ground this week, without leaving their difficult zone.

This week
+0.4%
Since January
−4.1%
Long-term trend
−3.6%

They remain below their long-term orientation, but the gap separating them from it has narrowed slightly. This is a reprieve, not a recovery.

What would change the reading A lasting return above this orientation would mark a genuine improvement in their situation.

Gold

Gold rose this week and reduced somewhat the distance separating it from its long trend.

This week
+1.2%
Since January
−3.4%
Long-term trend
−7.5%

It nevertheless remains below this trend, and its condition does not change. The search for safety has not yet brought it back to the right side.

What would change the reading A rebound that would place it lastingly above its long trend would change the reading.

Commodities

Commodities have risen further and stand clearly above their underlying orientation.

This week
+1.3%
Since January
+47.2%
Long-term trend
+16.0%

Their lead over this orientation has widened, and their condition remains the most solid of the five markets for several weeks. This firmness follows real activity and supply tensions, but the underlying slope says nothing about the coming week.

What would change the reading A move below their long-term orientation would tip this reading over.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin pulled back this week, which brought its price closer to its underlying trend.

This week
−3.8%
Since January
−7.0%
Long-term trend
+14.7%

Its gap above that trend has narrowed, but its condition has held for several weeks now. The most speculative of the five assets is catching its breath without the underlying move having reversed.

What would change the reading A lasting break below its underlying trend would call its regime into question.

The market environment

US10Y 5.24%, −0.03pt
The long-term cost of money eases barely this week, after the rise of the preceding weeks.
DXY 102.23, +0.3%
The dollar continues its slight advance and keeps weighing on what is denominated in its currency.
VIX 14.84, −3.1%
The nervousness expected by the market recedes and remains at a low level.

The discipline of the week

The week calls for no new action: it slowly separates markets that, seen from afar, all kept the same posture.

  • Two markets are pulling away on the upside, two remain below their underlying direction, and only one sits between the two without committing: this spreading is worth watching, for it is what works quietly while the labels stay still.
  • Commodities deserve attention this week, not because a reversal threatens them, but because the opposite is happening: they are extending their lead. It is the only place where the move is intensifying rather than fading.

A week like this one reads without urgency. Nothing forces a change in one's stance; what it does require is not to mistake identical conditions for identical trajectories, for under the same label the roads are beginning to diverge.

How to read this

  • A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.
  • They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.
Published by
Witan Way
Data as of
9 octobre 2026
Methodology
witanway.com/methodology Read it
Interests & conflicts
declaration as at the publication date

Witan Way is an independent, rules-based investing education platform. Nothing published constitutes personalised investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell. Capital is at risk. © Witan Way.