Witan Strategy
One portfolio, read by rules, published every Wednesday.
Witan Strategy is a single systematic allocation across 4 asset classes, with whatever the rules do not allocate held in cash. It decides from what prices have already done, it changes rarely, and every decision it makes is written down before it is taken.
What it reads, what it holds
Reading a market and investing in it are two acts.
Read every week
5 markets
The Regime Compass tracks US equities, US Treasuries, gold, commodities and Bitcoin. Each market is classified as constructive, in transition or under pressure.
- US Equities
- US TreasuriesRead only
- Gold
- Commodities
- Bitcoin
Held in the portfolio
4 asset classes, plus cash
US Treasuries are read for context and never held. What the rules do allocate is held in these 4; what they do not is held in cash.
- US Equities45%
- Gold25%
- Commodities15%
- Bitcoin5%
- Cash10%
An illustrative shape, not this week's allocation. The published weights change every week, and they are what a subscription buys.
- US Equities. The engine of long term growth, and the source of most of the declines.
- Gold. Holds value when confidence in currencies weakens, and pays nothing while it waits.
- Commodities. Reacts to inflation in a way financial assets usually do not.
- Bitcoin. A small position in an asset whose behaviour resembles nothing else here.
- Cash. Not a leftover. When the rules step back, this is where the exposure goes.
Five markets are read. 4 asset classes are held, and the rest is cash. The two lists are not the same list, and they are not meant to be.
How it decides
Three rules turn a reading into a portfolio.
- 01
It reads, it does not forecast
Every decision comes from what a price has already done.
01It reads, it does not forecast
Each asset class is assessed on its own price history, not on a view about what comes next. There is no scenario, no target and no opinion about the coming quarter. The difference matters to you rather than to us: a rule that reads the past can be checked against it, and a forecast cannot be checked against anything until it is too late.
- 02
A position moves only when a condition crosses
Most weeks change nothing, and that is the design working.
02A position moves only when a condition crosses
Exposure changes when a condition turns, not while it hovers near the line. Without that rule the portfolio would be rebuilt every week because a price wandered across a level and back again, and you would pay a cost for each of those crossings. Stillness is not the method failing to act. It is the method declining to.
- 03
Each class earns its place, then the whole is capped
Nothing is ever borrowed against, and the total never exceeds itself.
03Each class earns its place, then the whole is capped
An asset class earns its exposure independently of the others, so a strong signal in one place cannot drag in a weak one beside it. The combined exposure is then held under a ceiling. What the rules do not allocate is not idle by accident: it is held in cash, and that is a position like any other.
What you receive
One message on Wednesday, and nothing in between.
The target allocation
A weight for each asset class, and the share left in cash. It is the portfolio the rules hold for the coming week, published in full rather than summarised.
The note that explains it
What changed since the previous publication, which condition turned, and what did not move. A weight without its reason is a number you have to trust; with the reason it is a decision you can check.
One message, on a fixed day
Wednesday. A fixed day is part of the method, not a convenience: it removes the temptation to look again because a morning was bad, for us as much as for you.
And nothing in between
No alert when a market moves, no intraday message, no notification designed to bring you back. If a week changes nothing, the publication says so and stops there.
When conditions change
What the portfolio does when markets do not cooperate.
When one market turns
That asset class steps down on its own. The others are untouched, because each one is judged against its own price and not against the portfolio around it.
When several turn at once
Exposure falls together and the unallocated share grows. Cash is where the portfolio waits. It is not a forecast that markets will fall; it is the absence of a reason to be invested.
When everything is constructive
The combined exposure still stops at its ceiling. A good week cannot make the portfolio larger than itself, and nothing is ever borrowed against.
When a price hovers on the line
Nothing happens. A condition has to cross, not approach. This is the rule that keeps most weeks quiet, and quiet weeks are the ones that cost you nothing.
Where the record lives
There is a simulated history, and it is not this product.
The full record sits on its own page, with its period, its costs and its worst stretches. It is kept there rather than repeated here, because a number quoted out of its conditions stops being evidence.
What it is
A simulation, run on historical prices. No order was ever placed, and no money followed it.
Whose record
Witan Core, the earlier four asset model this work grew out of. It is a reference benchmark, not the track record of Witan Strategy.
What it is not
It is not a return anyone earned, and it is not the published record of this product. Witan Strategy has not been published yet, so it has no live record to show.
What it does not do
Five refusals, so you know what you are not buying.
- It does not predict. No figure on this site is a forecast of any market.
- It does not use leverage, and it never sells short.
- It does not trade intraday, and it does not react to news.
- It does not give you personal advice, and it cannot know whether it suits your situation.
- It is not a fund. Witan Way never holds your money and never places an order for you.
Access
Subscriptions are not open yet.
The weekly publication is being finished. Leave your address and you will hear once, when it opens. Until then the free Weekly Charter reads five markets every week, and the methodology is published in full.