Large losses matter disproportionately
The gain needed to return to par grows faster than the loss that caused it, so Witan evaluates drawdowns and volatility alongside return.
Witan Strategy
Follow one systematic portfolio,published every Wednesday.
Witan combines US equities, gold, commodities and Bitcoin in one rules based target portfolio. Every Wednesday, members receive the updated allocation and the note explaining what changed.
What you receive
Your Wednesday allocation, translated into portfolio values.
Every Wednesday, members receive the updated target allocation. Use the simulator below to see how those weights would translate across a hypothetical portfolio of any size.
Witan DashboardIllustrative allocation example
| Asset | Target weight | Hypothetical value |
|---|---|---|
| US Equities | 45% | $45,000 |
| Gold | 25% | $25,000 |
| Commodities | 15% | $15,000 |
| Bitcoin | 5% | $5,000 |
| Cash | 10% | $10,000 |
Invented weights and amounts, shown to explain the Dashboard. These are not a live allocation and not a record of any account.
Construction
How the allocation is calculated
Performance
Simulated historical performance
One simulated series, applied to market data since July 2010 and shown after costs.No money was managed over this period and nothing here is a record of executed trades.
Backtested on market data from 13 July 2010 to 21 September 2026, including transaction costs of 5 basis points per side. Presented on a reduced basis. Logarithmic axis, weekly sample.
View the data
The chart is shown at weekly intervals for readability. Deepest fall is calculated from the full 7-day NAV series.
| Date | Witan, simulated | S&P 500 (SPY, dividends reinvested) |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-07-13 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2011-07-06 | $13,685 | $12,462 |
| 2012-07-04 | $16,441 | $13,054 |
| 2013-07-03 | $23,092 | $15,664 |
| 2014-07-02 | $27,282 | $19,531 |
| 2015-07-01 | $28,247 | $20,953 |
| 2016-06-29 | $32,104 | $21,320 |
| 2017-06-28 | $37,595 | $25,630 |
| 2018-06-27 | $44,483 | $28,883 |
| 2019-06-26 | $53,087 | $31,763 |
| 2020-06-24 | $62,850 | $33,916 |
| 2021-06-23 | $84,687 | $47,836 |
| 2022-06-22 | $89,807 | $42,982 |
| 2023-06-21 | $99,623 | $50,749 |
| 2024-06-19 | $120,999 | $64,685 |
| 2025-06-18 | $138,847 | $71,354 |
| 2026-06-17 | $162,758 | $89,511 |
| 2026-09-21 | $167,055 | $93,915 |
The reference series is shown for orientation, not as a target or an official benchmark. It is a single US equity exposure, on the same dates and the same starting amount.
Hypothetical and past performance. Results before 07 October 2026 are hypothetical: they were produced by applying the current rules to historical data, with the benefit of hindsight, and do not reflect actual trading. Results after that date reflect the published allocations, not any actual account. Figures include trading costs of 5 basis points per side, and are then reduced by a further 25 per cent. They exclude management and subscription fees, bid-ask spreads, and taxes. The reference series carries no costs at all. Past and hypothetical performance do not predict future results. You may lose money.
| Series | $10,000 becomes | Annualised return | Deepest fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Witan, simulated | $167,055 | 19.0% | -9.8% |
| S&P 500 reference | $93,915 | 14.8% | -33.7% |
Weekly Charter
A weekly reading of five markets
The Regime Compass tracks US equities, US Treasuries, gold, commodities and Bitcoin. Each market is classified as constructive, in transition or under pressure.
The Weekly Charter is a free weekly reading of market conditions. It describes what Witan observes, not what the Strategy holds, and the portfolio holds no Treasuries.
States and readings are taken from the current published edition.
01 / 05
US Equities
Constructive
Equities remain above their long-term trend and the lead gained last week is holding. The gap has nonetheless narrowed: the margin above the underlying orientation is a little thinner than seven days ago.
- US EquitiesConstructive
- US TreasuriesUnder pressure
- GoldUnder pressure
- CommoditiesConstructive
- BitcoinTransition
Method
Risk is evaluated before return.
What a loss costs to recover
Arithmetic, not a projection. A larger loss needs a larger gain to return to par.
- 20% loss+25% to recover
- 30% loss+43% to recover
- 50% loss+100% to recover
Diversification is about behaviour, not asset count
Adding more assets does not necessarily make a portfolio more diversified. What matters is whether its components behave differently when market conditions change.
Subscription
Access the Witan Strategy
$390per year
Save $78 a year compared with monthly billing, or $32.50 a month.
Same product and same rights. Only the billing period changes.
What is included
- Weekly target allocation
- Allocation archive
- Witan Dashboard
- Methodology and publication notes