Witan Way
Sign inStart

The Sunday CharterN° 29Semaine close le 25 octobre 20266 minutesrevision 1

Commodities retain the edge, gold falls back

The five markets hold their regime this week. Behind this stability, the paths remain contrasted: commodities extend their advance, while gold widens its lag relative to its long-term trend. Equities preserve their constructive orientation, but with a slightly narrower margin. Volatility eases over the week, without the tensions having disappeared.

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

None of the five markets changes regime.

Equities and commodities remain Constructive. US bonds and gold remain Under pressure, while Bitcoin stays in Transition.

What changes

Commodities extend their rise and keep the largest lead over their long-term trend.

Conversely, gold drifts further from its own, after a week of marked decline.

What to watch

Equities remain solid but the gap with their trend has narrowed.

A sign to watch rather than a reversal.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Constructive

Equities remain above their long-term trend and the lead gained last week is holding. The gap has nonetheless narrowed: the margin above the underlying orientation is a little thinner than seven days ago.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds remain below their long-term orientation despite a positive week. A good week is not enough: it is a lasting settling above this orientation that would change the reading, and that has not happened.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold remains the safe haven, but the search for safety is not supporting it at the moment. It has drifted further below its underlying trend, widening the already open gap.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities remain above their long-term trend and their lead has widened further. This cyclical basket — energy, metals, agriculture — remains the clearest underlying movement on the page.

Bitcoin

Transition

Bitcoin remains in an intermediate state, neither confirmed nor broken, above its orientation of several months. The gap with this orientation has narrowed somewhat this week, without tilting the reading one way or the other.

The chart of the week

Commodities keep their slope

A ratio that rises without a break over the period shown

Curve of a commodities ratio rising from left to right, accompanied by a dotted marker located in the final third. The curve starts from a low level on the left and rises gradually towards the right, with no pronounced trough along the way. In its final third, a dotted line marks a tipping point calculated over the period shown; this marker stops abruptly at the last point of the curve and extends nothing beyond it. Commodities keep their slope A ratio that rises without a break over the period shown Period Level 20.00 25.00 30.00 Oct 24 Apr 25 Oct 25 Apr 26 Oct 26 — — — pivot of the last third

Hover or tap a point to read its value.

Curve of a commodities ratio rising from left to right, accompanied by a dotted marker located in the final third.
Read the chart in words

The curve starts from a low level on the left and rises gradually towards the right, with no pronounced trough along the way. In its final third, a dotted line marks a tipping point calculated over the period shown; this marker stops abruptly at the last point of the curve and extends nothing beyond it.

What we observe

The curve rises across the entire period shown, with no marked pullback that would break its trajectory. The dotted marker, placed beside it, indicates the tipping point of the final third: it is calculated over the period shown and stops at the last point, without going any further.

Why it matters

It is the only one of the five markets whose lead over its underlying trend has widened further this week. A curve that rises steadily tells of a settled orientation, not a one-off surge.

What not to conclude

A steady trajectory says nothing about the number of components — energy, metals, agriculture — that actually take part in it. Nor does it say anything about the coming week: the dotted marker is not a projection.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The markets

Understanding the first three pillars

Equities

US equities edge back slightly over the week while remaining above their long trend.

This week
−0.4%
Since January
+12.1%
Long-term trend
+5.0%

Their underlying orientation remains turned upwards, and the confirmation recently obtained has not been contradicted. But the gap with this trend has narrowed, and a growing share of the rise rests on a more limited number of stocks, which weakens the quality of the movement without reversing it.

What would change the reading A pullback that would bring this market below its long-term orientation would erase the lead obtained.

Treasuries

US government bonds rise a little but remain below their long trend.

This week
+0.7%
Since January
−2.4%
Long-term trend
−1.6%

Their role is to cushion the shocks of equities, and for now they are moving below their orientation of several months. A single week of gains is not enough to right a situation that has been in place for several months.

What would change the reading A lasting return above this orientation, and not an isolated good week, would mark a genuine improvement.

Gold

Gold falls clearly over the week and sinks further below its long trend.

This week
−4.0%
Since January
−8.0%
Long-term trend
−11.5%

A safe haven sought when confidence recedes, the metal is moving below its long-term orientation and the gap has widened further. This describes a weakness, not a reversal: the underlying slope has not turned abruptly, it is simply moving a little further from its support.

What would change the reading A recovery that would place it lastingly back above its long-term orientation would change the reading.

Commodities

Commodities rise further and widen their lead over their long trend.

This week
+1.1%
Since January
+52.3%
Long-term trend
+17.7%

This basket tracks real economic activity and tensions on supply, and its underlying trend remains oriented upward. The gap with this trend has widened, which confirms the strength of the move without saying anything about the number of sectors taking part in it or about what follows.

What would change the reading A move below their long-term orientation would tip this reading over.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin gives up a little over the week but holds above its long trend.

This week
−1.2%
Since January
−8.9%
Long-term trend
+10.9%

This asset overstates both directions, and its reading stays between confirmation and rupture, without either prevailing. The gap with its multi-month orientation has narrowed, which warrants attention without settling the direction of the move.

What would change the reading A break settled below its multi-month orientation would bring its reading under pressure.

The market environment

US10Y 4.99%, −0.11pt
The long-term cost of money eases slightly, lifting a little of the pressure on assets sensitive to rates.
DXY 101.75, −0.1%
The dollar remains nearly stable, without weighing further on what is denominated in this currency.
VIX 19.45, −2.7%
The nervousness anticipated by the market subsides a little after its recent rise.

The discipline of the week

A week without a shift is not a week without a lesson: the five markets keep their state, but they do not all say the same thing.

  • Two strong lines each reinforce on their own side: what follows real economic activity widens its lead, while the search for safety continues to withdraw. Keeping these two movements distinct is the real reading work of the week, for they pull in opposite directions without contradicting each other.
  • Equities hold above their long-term orientation, but the gap separating them from it has narrowed. This reverses nothing; it only invites looking no longer merely at whether the rise continues, but at how many supports it rests on.
  • An environment of persistent inflation and a firm dollar remains a coherent frame for explaining why cyclicals advance. But a frame is not a measure: it sheds light on what the week shows, it does not exempt one from checking what it actually confirms.

The week requires holding together two facts that are unalike, and it requires nothing more. It does not call for anticipating a reversal the figures do not carry, nor for mistaking a conviction about the cycle for an already verified signal. The discipline here consists in distinguishing what a scenario makes plausible from what the markets have actually established.

How to read this

  • A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.
  • They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.
Published by
Witan Way
Data as of
23 octobre 2026
Methodology
witanway.com/methodology Read it
Interests & conflicts
declaration as at the publication date

Witan Way is an independent, rules-based investing education platform. Nothing published constitutes personalised investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell. Capital is at risk. © Witan Way.