- Are these windows independent?
- No, and it matters. They overlap heavily — consecutive twenty-year windows share nineteen years — so a high share of positive windows reflects a handful of long market regimes, not hundreds of separate experiments.
- Why is a horizon greyed out?
- Because there are fewer than twelve rolling windows for it. Below that, a 'worst case' is one unlucky starting month dressed up as a distribution, so no figure is produced at all.
- Are the returns adjusted for inflation?
- No. These are nominal. A clean consumer-price series is needed to do it properly, and producing real returns from an approximation would change every number on this page without saying so.
