Witan Way

The Sunday Charter

A quiet week where nothing reverses

None of the five markets changes state this week, and the positions established hold. Beneath this stable surface, two movements stand out: bitcoin gains a little more distance above its long-term trend, while government bonds drift a little further from theirs. The rest consolidates without settling.

N° 24 · Semaine close le 20 septembre 2026 · 6 minutes

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

The five markets keep the state they carried last week, and have done so for several weeks in each case.

The stability of the states does not mean stillness: the gaps to the trend, for their part, have moved.

What changes

Bitcoin moves further above its long-term trend; government bonds sink a little further below theirs.

Gold and equities draw closer to their underlying trend, without changing how it reads.

What to watch

The dollar firms and market nervousness eases, a setting rather favourable to risk assets.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

Equities remain above their long-term trend, but in a state neither confirmed nor broken for several weeks. Last week called for watching participation; this week it is the gap to the trend that narrows, without calling the underlying orientation into question.

U.S. stocks marked time over the week, without leaving their in-between state.

This week: −0.1%
Since January: +12.4%
Long-term trend: +6.9%au-dessus

The market remains above its long-term orientation, but the gap separating it from this trend has again melted away. This reverses nothing, but leaves the reading undecided, as it has been for several weeks.

What would change the reading A rise carried by a larger number of stocks would firm up the reading, while a gap that continues to narrow would weaken it.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds move below their long-term orientation, and this gap has widened further. As long as they remain below this marker, their regime stays Under pressure, without prejudging their reaction to a fall in equities.

Government bonds are declining further and moving further away from their long-term trend.

This week: −0.2%
Since January: −3.0%
Long-term trend: −2.7%sous

They remain below their multi-month orientation, and this week widens the gap rather than closing it. This position prolongs their under-pressure regime; it is not enough to presume how they would behave during a stock market pullback.

What would change the reading A lasting return above their underlying trend would constitute a signal of an improving regime.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold remains below its underlying trend, but the gap has narrowed a little this week. This does not yet reopen the hypothesis of a return above its long-term trend; it is merely a step in that direction.

Gold gains a little ground over the week but remains below its long-term trend.

This week: +0.6%
Since January: +0.7%
Long-term trend: −3.6%sous

The move brings the metal slightly closer to its long-term orientation, without moving it back above. This limited rebound is not enough to change its Under pressure state.

What would change the reading A lasting recovery that places it back above its long-term trend would reopen the hypothesis of an improving regime.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities keep the widest lead of the five, even if this gap has eased a little this week. Their orientation over several months remains upward, despite the slight pullback of the week.

Commodities give up a little over the week while remaining well above their long-term trend.

This week: −0.7%
Since January: +47.1%
Long-term trend: +19.1%au-dessus

This slight pullback narrows a lead that remained the widest of the five markets. The underlying movement has not reversed, but it is taking a breath after a long advance.

What would change the reading A move below their long-term orientation would tip this reading.

Bitcoin

Constructive

Bitcoin remains above its long-term trend and gains more distance this week. This margin stays exposed to rapid reversals, despite its current extent.

Bitcoin rises markedly over the week and moves further upward away from its long-term trend.

This week: +6.3%
Since January: −9.4%
Long-term trend: +14.0%au-dessus

With +6.3% this week, Bitcoin widens its gap to the long-term trend, now +14.0%. This progression deserves to be followed without presuming that a technical resistance has been crossed.

What would change the reading A lasting break of the pivot that had triggered the shift into Constructive would call this regime into question.

↑ improvement · → no significant change · ↓ deterioration

The market environment

US10Y: 5.00% +0.02pt
The long-term cost of money remains stable over the week, at a high level that continues to weigh on bonds.
DXY: 100.22 +1.1%
The dollar gains 1.1% over the week; its effects differ across assets and their exposure to the US currency.
VIX: 14.81 −6.5%
The VIX falls 6.5% and remains at a low level, signalling lower anticipated volatility on US equities.

The chart of the week

Bitcoin holds above its underlying trend

A curve that stabilizes without breaking its upward orientation

What we observe

Over the period shown, Bitcoin remains above its long-term trend. Its rise of 6.3% this week widens this gap, without on its own being enough to conclude a lasting acceleration.

Why it matters

A phase where a market stabilizes above its long-term trend is worth following: it is the kind of quiet range out of which, in one direction or the other, sharper moves emerge. For now, Bitcoin retains a positive margin relative to its long-term trend.

What not to conclude

The dotted marker is calculated over the period shown and stops at the last point: it is not a projection. The visible stability says nothing about the direction of the coming weeks, nor about the strength of the move once the quiet range is left behind.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The discipline of the week

None of the five markets changes regime this week: the indicators move, but each market retains its state.

The monitored thresholds remain open: gold and bonds stay below their long trend, while equities remain in Transition.

Bitcoin draws particular attention: its weekly rise widens its gap from the trend, without being enough to confirm a lasting acceleration or to anticipate its next direction.

This week's discipline consists above all in observing the thresholds that could alter how the regimes are read. The points to watch remain the lasting return of bonds and gold above their long trend, as well as the holding of the pivot recently validated by Bitcoin.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.

They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.