Witan Way

Historical Stress Test

What would have happened to my portfolio?

Build a simple allocation and put it through a crisis that really happened. The fall, how long it took, and whether it ever came back — measured on the data that recorded it.

Your portfolio

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Computing this scenario...

Questions about this tool

Why is there no rebalancing?
Because the question is what would have happened to a portfolio, and a portfolio left alone is the honest baseline. Rebalancing through a crash is a second decision, with its own timing and its own results; blending it in would answer a question you did not ask.
Why can't I pick Bitcoin for the 2008 crisis?
Because it did not exist in a usable form, and its history in this dataset starts in 2019. We disable the combination rather than extend a series backwards, which would produce a confident number about something that never happened.
Are these the returns I would have had?
They are the returns of the proxies listed in the method panel, before tax, fees and any trading you would actually have done. The shape of the episode is the point; the last decimal is not.

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