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Sequence of Returns

Same returns. Different order. Different outcome.

Take the years a portfolio actually lived through, reorder them, and withdraw the same amount from each version. Nothing about the returns changes — only when the bad ones arrive.

Your scenario

Allocation

Value100%

Set the withdrawal to zero to see the control: with no cash flow the order stops mattering.

Computing this scenario...

Questions about this tool

Did the reordered sequences happen?
No, and they are labelled so everywhere. Only the historical order is a period of history. The other three exist to hold the returns constant while changing nothing but their order.
Why does the control matter so much?
Because it isolates the cause. If reordering changed the outcome even without withdrawals, the effect would be about the returns. It does not — so the effect is entirely about the cash flow, and that is what sequence risk means.
Is worst-first a realistic scenario?
It is a bound, not a forecast. Real sequences are irregular. Its value is showing how far the same set of returns can be pushed by timing alone.

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