Witan Way

Money Longevity

How long could my money last?

One deterministic scenario, month by month, with the withdrawal rising each year. Not a probability of success — a single path you can check, and a grid showing how little it takes to move it.

Your scenario

A nominal assumption. The withdrawal rises separately, below.

The capital lasts

23.2 years

Withdrawing €2,500 a month, rising 2.0% a year.

Runs out after

23.2 years

Left at the horizon

€0

Total withdrawn

€872,579

Final monthly withdrawal

€0

The capital, month by month

The return is applied first, then the withdrawal is taken. The rise lands once a year, on the anniversary.

Show these figures as a table
YearCapital
0€500,000
1€494,319
2€487,739
3€480,205
4€471,656
5€462,029
6€451,255
7€439,266
8€425,986
9€411,337
10€395,236
11€377,598
12€358,329
13€337,334
14€314,511
15€289,753
16€262,947
17€233,976
18€202,713
19€169,028
20€132,782
21€93,831
22€52,019
23€7,187
24€0
25€0
26€0
27€0
28€0
29€0
30€0
31€0
32€0
33€0
34€0
35€0
36€0
37€0
38€0
39€0
40€0
How much the answer depends on the assumptions
Return / Withdrawal-10%+0%+10%
-2%20.8 years18.4 years16.7 years
+0%27.1 years23.2 years20.3 years
+2%Lasts34.5 years27.8 years

Each cell is the same scenario with one assumption moved. A grid that spans decades is telling you the answer is an assumption.

Method, sources and limits
Method version
1.0.0
  • A monthly simulation. The month's return is applied first, then the withdrawal is deducted; the withdrawal rises once every twelve months. A final month pays out only what is left. This is one path under fixed assumptions: there is no probability, no Monte Carlo and no chance of success anywhere in this tool.

Past performance is not a guide to future returns. These figures describe what happened over the period shown and nothing else.

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Questions about this tool

Why is there no probability of success?
Because it would be the most quoted number on the page and the least defensible. A probability needs a model of how returns behave; this tool has a single assumed rate, and saying so is more useful than dressing it up.
Does the order of returns matter here?
Enormously, and this tool cannot show it — it assumes one constant rate. Sequence of Returns exists for exactly that, and it is worth running alongside this one.
Return first or withdrawal first?
Return first, then the withdrawal, every month. The choice changes the answer slightly, so it is fixed, documented and pinned by a test rather than left to chance.

Witan Way is an independent, rules-based investing education platform. Nothing published constitutes personalised investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell. Capital is at risk. © Witan Way.