Witan Way

The Sunday Charter

Commodities lead, without everything following

This week, none of the five markets changes state. The clearest move comes from commodities, which widen their lead over their underlying trend further, while Bitcoin consolidates its recent shift into Constructive, still above its long trend. Equities, gold and bonds remain where they were, each in its own reading.

N° 22 · Semaine close le 6 septembre 2026 · 6 minutes

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

Commodities remain clearly above their long-term orientation, and their lead has widened further.

Gold and government bonds remain below their underlying trend: neither has yet managed to settle back above its underlying trend.

What changes

Bitcoin confirms its recent shift into Constructive: its distance above its long trend widens further.

Equities keep their nuanced reading: well above their underlying trend, but without having regained robustness.

What to watch

The strength of commodities also warrants watching: if it persists, it could in time feed further price tensions.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

The market remains well above its long trend, but its reading has not firmed and stays in Transition. The distance to the trend narrowed slightly this week, without being enough to shift the regime.

Equities barely moved this week and remain in Transition.

This week: +0.1%
Since January: +13.3%
Long-term trend: +8.5%au-dessus

They still sit clearly above their long-term orientation, but their gap to that orientation has narrowed. Participation therefore remains the main point to watch, and that is what keeps the reading in between.

What would change the reading A broadening of participation would restore firmness to the reading, whereas a continued narrowing would weaken it further.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Bonds remain below their long-term orientation, in continuation of previous weeks. The settled return above this trend, which would restore reach to their role as a buffer, has not occurred.

Government bonds edge lower and remain Under pressure.

This week: −0.3%
Since January: −1.4%
Long-term trend: −1.3%sous

They stay below their long-term orientation, and the gap has widened further. As long as this awaited return above does not occur, their ability to resume their traditional role as a shock absorber remains limited.

What would change the reading A return settled above this underlying orientation would restore reach to their role as a buffer.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold still moves below its underlying trend and remains Under pressure. The lasting recovery that would reopen the hypothesis of a rebound has not happened; the improvement outlined two weeks ago therefore remains invalidated for now.

Gold gives up a little ground and remains under pressure.

This week: −0.5%
Since January: +2.1%
Long-term trend: −2.1%sous

It sits below its long-term orientation, and the gap has widened rather than narrowed. The recovery that would have placed it back above its underlying trend, mentioned earlier, has not materialized: no sign of a return above its long trend has appeared yet.

What would change the reading A lasting rebound placing it back above its long trend would reopen this hypothesis.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities confirm their position well above their long trend, and this gap has widened further. It is the most pronounced underlying move among the five markets this week.

Commodities advance further and hold their constructive state.

This week: +3.6%
Since January: +42.5%
Long-term trend: +17.5%au-dessus

Their lead over their multi-month orientation has widened, and this state has held without interruption for several weeks. Such a settled strength deserves attention: it carries the clearest signal of the week, without implying that it will continue at the same pace.

What would change the reading A return below their long-term orientation would tip this reading.

Bitcoin

Constructive

Bitcoin consolidates its recent shift into Constructive and remains well above its underlying trend. The relapse that would have placed it back into indecision has not occurred, and its distance to the trend has even widened.

Bitcoin advances and confirms its constructive state.

This week: +3.3%
Since January: −9.9%
Long-term trend: +14.6%au-dessus

Its gap above its underlying trend has widened, extending the move begun after the pivot was validated the previous week. The position gains footing, but the underlying move is merely stabilizing above the recently crossed threshold, without anything irreversible being secured.

What would change the reading A slide back below this recent threshold would return the market to the indecision it has just left.

↑ improvement · → no significant change · ↓ deterioration

The market environment

US10Y: 4.78% +0.06pt
The long-term cost of money edges up, which continues to weigh on government bonds.
DXY: 99.16 −0.5%
The dollar eases slightly, after its firming of the previous week.
VIX: 14.53 +0.7%
The market's anticipated nervousness remains low and barely changed.

The chart of the week

Commodities strike out on their own

The commodities curve set against its underlying trend, over the period shown

What we observe

Over the period shown, the curve rises and holds above the long-term trend marker, drawn as a dotted line alongside it. The gap between the two does not close; if anything, it tends to widen towards the end of the period.

Why it matters

Commodities respond in particular to real economic activity and to supply strains. An advance that holds and widens over its underlying trend is the most pronounced regime signal among the five markets this week.

What not to conclude

The curve says nothing about the week ahead. The dotted marker is calculated over the period shown and stops at the last point: it is not a projection. Marked strength can also revive price tensions that would later weigh elsewhere.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The discipline of the week

The week proceeds without a change of regime: none of the five markets changes state.

What the week requires is distinguishing an advance that is settling in from a recovery already secured. Commodities extend a strength already in place, while Bitcoin consolidates its recent shift into Constructive.

Equities remain in suspense: they trade well above their underlying trend, without the reading firming up. Participation therefore remains the decisive point in separating a mere pause from a clearer weakening.

Gold and government bonds remain below their long-term trend. Neither gold nor bonds managed to regain their long-term trend this week.

The week therefore asks nothing new. It is a reminder that the most visible strength, that of commodities, also carries the risk that it may eventually weigh elsewhere. An already strong advance is watched more than it is celebrated.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.

They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.