Witan Way

The Sunday Charter

Equities advance, gold and bonds drift away

None of the five markets change regime this week. The margin of equities above their trend widens; gold and bonds move further below theirs. Commodities remain Constructive despite their weekly decline of 0.9%.

N° 25 · Semaine close le 27 septembre 2026 · 6 minutes

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

Equities remain in Transition despite a weekly rise of 1.3%.

Bitcoin remains Constructive despite a pullback of 2.0%; commodities keep a margin of 16.9% above their long trend.

What changes

Gold is now 5.5% below its long trend and bonds 3.5% below theirs.

The margin of equities above their trend moves from +6.9% to +7.9%, without any change of regime.

What to watch

The dollar strengthens and the long-term cost of money rises.

Market nervousness remains low.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

Equities remain in Transition despite a rise of 1.3% over the week. Their margin above the trend improves, but the regime does not change.

US equities rise over the week and remain above their underlying trend, without settling their state for all that.

This week: +1.3%
Since January: +13.8%
Long-term trend: +7.9%au-dessus

The margin above the trend moves from +6.9% to +7.9%. This gain does not, on its own, prove that more stocks are taking part in the rise.

What would change the reading A rise in which a greater number of companies took part would draw this market toward a more assertive regime.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds move below their long-term orientation, and drift a little further away from it. The lasting return above this trend, which would signal an improvement, has not occurred.

Government bonds decline further and sink deeper below their underlying trend.

This week: −0.9%
Since January: −3.8%
Long-term trend: −3.5%sous

Bonds lose ground over the week; their gap to the trend widens from below to further below.

What would change the reading A lasting return above their long-term trend would signal an improvement in the regime.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold moves at −5.5% below its long trend, compared with −3.6% the previous week.

Gold declines over the week and remains below its long-term trend.

This week: −1.9%
Since January: −1.2%
Long-term trend: −5.5%sous

The safe-haven asset trades below its multi-month orientation, and the gap widens further still. Nothing in the week brings this asset closer to the threshold that would reopen the hypothesis of an improvement.

What would change the reading A recovery that would place it durably above its long-term trend would change the reading.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities hold clearly above their orientation of several months. The distance has narrowed a little, but nothing has moved below the underlying trend, which would have tipped the reading.

Commodities give up a little over the week but stay clearly above their underlying trend.

This week: −0.9%
Since January: +45.7%
Long-term trend: +16.9%au-dessus

This cyclical market — energy, metals, agriculture — keeps a comfortable lead over its long-term orientation despite the pullback. The slight decline barely brings the curve closer to its underlying slope, without threatening its direction.

What would change the reading A move below their long-term orientation would tip this reading.

Bitcoin

Constructive

Bitcoin remains Constructive despite a decline of 2.0% over the week. The pivot that had triggered this regime has not been broken; it nonetheless remains to be confirmed over time.

Bitcoin declines over the week while remaining largely above its underlying trend.

This week: −2.0%
Since January: −4.8%
Long-term trend: +18.8%au-dessus

The most speculative asset retains a marked lead over its long-term orientation, and that lead has even widened despite the weekly decline. The pivot that had tipped this market into its current state has not been called into question.

What would change the reading A lasting break of this pivot would put the regime in question.

↑ improvement · → no significant change · ↓ deterioration

The market environment

US10Y: 5.18% +0.19pt
The long-term cost of money rises, weighing more heavily on anything that is borrowed or financed.
DXY: 101.04 +0.8%
The dollar strengthens, increasing the burden on anything denominated in this currency.
VIX: 14.87 +0.4%
The expected nervousness of the market remains low and stable.

The chart of the week

Commodities hold their course

A broad trajectory — energy, metals, agriculture — compared with its underlying trend

What we observe

Over the period shown, the curve remains broadly stable and holds above the dotted marker representing its long-term trend. This marker is calculated only over the visible period and stops at the last plotted point.

Why it matters

This basket tracks real economic activity and supply strains. Seeing it hold above its underlying orientation says that the move under way has not reversed, even as the week added no momentum.

What not to conclude

A stable curve above its trend says nothing about the week ahead, nor about the share of components taking part in the move. The dotted marker is not a projection: it does not venture beyond the last point.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The discipline of the week

The week clearly separates what is under way from what remains to be confirmed, and it asks nothing more than to hold on to that distinction.

Three markets carry an underlying orientation that has been working in their favor for several weeks; that is an established fact, not a promise for what follows.

Gold and government bonds remain on the wrong side of their long trend, and a gap that widens further does not read as the start of a return.

A rising cost of money and a firmer dollar form the backdrop: they weigh without having yet shifted any state.

Nothing this week compels a revision of the reading. What is solid remains so, what is fragile has not recovered, and the in-between of equities remains the in-between it was. The right stance consists in not confusing a lasting underlying move with one that would be decisive — the two only resemble each other from afar.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.

They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.