Witan Way

The Sunday Charter

Bitcoin joins the constructive markets, gold loses its footing

Two markets changed status this week, in opposite directions. Bitcoin finally meets the condition awaited in previous weeks, while gold moves back below its long-term orientation. Equities, for their part, pause without breaking.

N° 21 · Semaine close le 30 août 2026 · 6 minutes

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

Bitcoin moves to Constructive: the pivot awaited above its long-term trend is now confirmed, lifting part of the earlier indecision.

What changes

Gold tips into Under pressure: after appearing to steady, it drops back below its underlying trend.

What to watch

Equities move back into Transition: they remain clearly above their long-term trend, but their reading becomes less robust.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

Equities remain above their orientation of several months, but their status has slipped from Constructive to Transition. The reading is less clear-cut than seven days ago: the trend holds, but the regime loses solidity.

Equities edged higher over the week and remain clearly above their underlying trend.

This week: +0.5%
Since January: +13.2%
Long-term trend: +8.8%au-dessus

The underlying movement has not reversed: the market remains above its long-term orientation. The shift into Transition reflects a less robust reading, not a break in the upward trend.

What would change the reading A rise that once again rested on only a few names, with participation narrowing, would further weaken this reading.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds stay below their long-term trend, in the same position as in previous weeks. A lasting return above this trend, which would strengthen their role as a buffer, has not occurred.

Government bonds remained nearly stable and stay below their long-term trend.

This week: 0.0%
Since January: −1.1%
Long-term trend: −1.1%sous

They remain settled below their long-term trend, with no notable improvement this week. Their ability to play their traditional cushioning role against equity risk stays limited as long as they move below their multi-month orientation.

What would change the reading A settled return above this orientation would restore reach to this cushioning role.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold moves back to Under pressure: the stabilisation sketched out last week did not take hold, and it once again trades below its long-term orientation. The improvement outlined last week is therefore quickly called into question.

Gold fell markedly over the week and slips back below its underlying trend.

This week: −3.4%
Since January: +2.7%
Long-term trend: −1.4%sous

After appearing to stabilise, it drops back and tips into a pressured state. The return below its long-term trend weakens the hypothesis of a shift in direction sketched out in past weeks.

What would change the reading A recovery that reinstates it durably above its long-term trend would reopen that hypothesis.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities keep their Constructive status, clearly above the underlying slope. The shift below their long-term trend, which would have changed the reading, did not come close.

Commodities gave up a little ground but remain clearly above their long-term trend.

This week: −1.5%
Since January: +37.5%
Long-term trend: +14.4%au-dessus

Their Constructive state has held without interruption for several weeks, and this slight pullback does not affect the underlying slope. This basket remains firmly oriented despite the recent pause, with no signal of a break in its underlying trend.

What would change the reading A return below their long-term orientation would tip this reading over.

Bitcoin

Constructive

Bitcoin emerges from several weeks of indecision and moves to Constructive: the pivot awaited above its underlying trend is now confirmed. It is the clearest change of regime of the week.

Bitcoin moved little over the week but joins the group of Constructive markets.

This week: −0.6%
Since January: −12.0%
Long-term trend: +12.6%au-dessus

The expected pivot above its long-term trend is now validated, which allows the regime to move from Transition to Constructive. The indecision that held it in Transition lifts in part, without this amounting to confirmation of a clearly established cycle.

What would change the reading A relapse below this recent pivot would place the market back into the indecision it has just left.

↑ improvement · → no significant change · ↓ deterioration

The market environment

US10Y: 4.72% −0.02pt
The cost of money over the long term remained practically unchanged over the week.
DXY: 99.68 +0.9%
The dollar firmed over the week, after the pullback observed the previous week.
VIX: 14.43 −4.6%
The nervousness anticipated by the market has receded further and remains low.

The chart of the week

Commodities digest their advance

The broad basket — energy, metals, agriculture — remains well above its underlying trend

What we observe

Over the period shown, the curve remains broadly stable: it no longer advances but gives up nothing. The dotted reference, computed over this same period, runs beneath it: commodities hold above their long-term trend.

Why it matters

This plateau above the trend looks more like a pause than a reversal. That is what separates a consolidation from a break: the market absorbs its recent rise without slipping back below its underlying orientation.

What not to conclude

A stable curve says nothing about the week ahead. Nor does it say which components — energy, metals or agriculture — are carrying the movement, or whether this balance will hold. The reference stops at the last point and extends nothing beyond it.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The discipline of the week

Three markets out of five are trading above their underlying trend; gold has joined bonds below it this week. The composition deteriorates slightly, despite the improvement in Bitcoin's regime.

The shift of Bitcoin into a Constructive state fulfils a condition that the preceding weeks had set without seeing it come about: the anticipated pivot is now validated. The condition set in the preceding weeks is therefore met, without on its own confirming a new upward cycle.

Gold, by contrast, contradicts the hypothesis of a stabilisation sketched out recently: it falls back below its long-term orientation instead of settling back into it. The improvement glimpsed last week is thus called into question.

The pullback of equities in Transition is not a break: the underlying slope has not turned, only the quality of the reading has deteriorated. It is a reminder that a favourable state can lose depth without changing in nature.

The week reshuffles the balances without settling anything for all that. The underlying movement of commodities deserves attention, the regime of Bitcoin has just improved, but gold slipping away and equities lightening remind us that the solidity of the whole cannot be reduced to the number of markets sitting above their trend. Nothing compels action; everything invites us to distinguish what is confirming itself from what is crumbling.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.

They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.