Witan Way

The Sunday Charter

The improvement broadens, without anything being settled

This week, several markets firm up at the same time: commodities extend their advance, equities regain their footing, and gold moves back above its long-term trend. Bitcoin has broken the downward line that was containing it, but it remains between two regimes, without yet having returned to a rising regime. Nothing forces a shift; this is a climate that is improving, not a confirmation.

N° 20 · Semaine close le 23 août 2026 · 6 minutes

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

Commodities remain clearly above their long-term trend and retain a Constructive state.

Their underlying movement remains intact despite the consolidation that has begun after their strong advance.

What changes

Equities return to Constructive: participation, which had narrowed, is broadening again.

Gold too moves back above its long-term trend and shifts into Transition.

What to watch

Government bonds remain below their long-term trend, the only market not taking part in the improvement.

On bitcoin, the formation and then the crossing of a new pivot will constitute the next important signal.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Constructive

Equities move back to Constructive: participation, for a time concentrated on the largest names, has broadened again. The small weekly pullback changes nothing about this regained footing.

Equities give up a little over the week, while remaining above their long-term trend.

This week: −1.4%
Since January: +12.7%
Long-term trend: +8.6%au-dessus

The pullback is slight and it comes with a point that matters: the rise once again relies on a larger number of stocks, whereas it had been concentrated on a handful of companies. This broadening makes the underlying movement more solid than it was, without erasing the fact that the week ended in the red.

What would change the reading A further narrowing of participation, where the advance would again rest on only a few stocks, would weaken this reading.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds remain under pressure, below their long-term orientation. Their gap has widened, and they are not accompanying the general firming of the other markets.

Government bonds decline again slightly and remain below their long-term trend.

This week: −0.2%
Since January: −1.2%
Long-term trend: −1.1%sous

It is the only market not taking part in the general upturn, and its gap with its underlying trend has widened further. As long as they trade below their long-term orientation, their capacity to play their traditional role as a cushion against equity risk remains limited.

What would change the reading A lasting return above their long-term trend would strengthen this cushioning capacity.

Gold

Transition

Gold crosses its underlying trend and leaves the Under pressure state for Transition, meeting the condition set last week. This is a rebound within a consolidation that may stretch out, not yet a clear direction.

Gold continues its rebound and moves back above its long-term trend.

This week: +5.4%
Since January: +6.3%
Long-term trend: +2.4%au-dessus

After several weeks spent below it, this crossing shifts its state to Transition: the rebound is real, but the underlying direction is not yet settled. The margin above its underlying trend remains thin, which leaves the situation open in both directions.

What would change the reading A lasting settling above its long-term trend would strengthen the hypothesis of a change in orientation.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities remain constructive and their advance above the underlying slope has broadened further. Their underlying movement remains intact.

Commodities post a further rise and remain clearly above their long-term trend.

This week: +4.2%
Since January: +39.6%
Long-term trend: +17.1%au-dessus

They retain the widest gap with their long-term orientation among the five markets, and this gap has widened further this week. This basket — energy, metals, agriculture — follows real economic activity, and its progression after a strong advance looks more like a digestion than a loss of momentum.

What would change the reading A return below their long-term orientation would shift the reading.

Bitcoin

Transition

Bitcoin remains in Transition despite a strong rise and a widening gap above its long-term trend. It has broken the line that was pulling it downward, but as long as a new pivot does not form and then is not crossed, the indecision persists.

Bitcoin records a strong rise over the week, while remaining in Transition.

This week: +19.2%
Since January: −13.1%
Long-term trend: +11.7%au-dessus

It holds above its long-term trend and the gap with it has widened, yet its state does not move: indecision remains. Its volatility amplifies moves in both directions, which invites us not to read a single good week as a confirmed reversal.

What would change the reading The forming and then the crossing of a new pivot above its long-term trend would lift part of this indecision.

↑ improvement · → no significant change · ↓ deterioration

The market environment

US10Y: 4.74% +0.04pt
The long-term cost of money edges up barely, staying close to its level of last week.
DXY: 98.84 −0.8%
The dollar retreats over the week, without this move calling into question its medium- and long-term reading.
VIX: 15.13 +6.2%
The nervousness expected by the market moves back up, but from a level that remains low.

The chart of the week

Bitcoin emerges from its downward slope

An exit from the downward slope that calls for confirmation

What we observe

Bitcoin has just moved out of the downward slope that framed its movement. The dotted marker represents the pivot of the last third of the period; it now constitutes the next technical level to watch.

Why it matters

The exit from the downward slope indicates that downward pressure has eased. This is what the Transition state reflects: the previous downward dynamic has weakened, without a new upward regime yet being confirmed.

What not to conclude

The dotted marker is not a projection: its crossing remains a condition to observe, not an anticipation. The exit from the downward slope does not, on its own, allow one to conclude that a new upward market has begun.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The discipline of the week

The week imposes few constraints: four of the five markets evolve in a favorable environment, while bonds remain the main point of withdrawal.

Equities have regained in Constructive what they had lost last week: participation broadens again, and the condition set at the time is met on the right side. Still, this broadening will have to hold in order to turn the week's improvement into a more durable foundation.

Gold and bitcoin share the same Transition status, but for distinct reasons: gold crosses its long-term trend after several weeks below it, while bitcoin remains settled there without having resolved its indecision. Neither one calls for a firm conclusion.

Government bonds remain the only market below its long-term trend. Their ability to play their traditional role as a shock absorber remains limited; it is a shortfall to note, not an alarm.

A week that allows serenity without demanding conviction. The underlying move remains oriented upward for most markets, but nothing compels us to read more into it than a supportive environment that is continuing. Discipline consists in letting what works run and keeping an eye on what has not yet joined the movement.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.

They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.