Witan Way

The Sunday Charter

Equities lose their tilt, commodities hold the upper ground

The only move of the week is on the equity side: their reading shifts to Transition. The four other markets keep the position they already held. The nervousness the market expects continues to ease.

N° 19 · Semaine close le 16 août 2026 · 6 minutes

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

Equities swing from Constructive to Transition: what was carrying their reading has moved without turning over.

What changes

Gold and government bonds both remain below their long-term orientation.

Yet these are two distinct stories, one a safe haven, the other a shock absorber.

What to watch

Commodities confirm their position above their underlying trend, week after week.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Transition

The reading moves from Constructive to Transition. The condition flagged last week — a rise carried by an ever narrower set of names — has come to pass: the overall move rests on fewer companies, which lowers its quality without cancelling it.

Stocks remain above their long trend, but their reading shifted this week from Constructive to Transition.

This week: +0.4%
Since January: +14.2%
Long-term trend: +10.5%au-dessus

What carried their tilt has moved without reversing: the market holds its position, but no longer confirms it with the same clarity. Last week set out precisely this condition — a rise carried by an ever narrower number of stocks would shift the reading; that is what happened.

What would change the reading Participation broadening again, or on the contrary a slide below the long-term orientation, would settle it one way or the other.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds remain below their underlying trend, and the lasting return above that would restore their role as a shock absorber has not begun. The long-term cost of money, edging up this week, does not help them.

Government bonds remain below their long-term orientation.

This week: −0.1%
Since January: −0.9%
Long-term trend: −0.9%sous

The cushion has not returned to its usual position: it stays on the wrong side of its underlying trend. Until it comes back, it cannot be counted on to play its role when stocks weaken.

What would change the reading A lasting return above their long trend would restore its cushioning function.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold still trades below its long-term orientation, a safe haven that current confidence does not seek out. Its gap to the trend has narrowed slightly, but the lasting crossing needed to change the reading has not taken place.

Gold remains under pressure, but its gap to its underlying trend has narrowed this week.

This week: +0.8%
Since January: +0.8%
Long-term trend: −2.6%sous

The safe-haven asset is moving closer to its long-term orientation without having crossed it yet. This is a move in the right direction, not yet a change in reading.

What would change the reading A clear and sustained crossing of its long trend would shift its state.

Commodities

Constructive

The market stays above its long trend and its underlying slope works in its favour. The slide that would have tipped the reading has not occurred; it is the only one of the five to remain in the most solid state.

Commodities confirm their position above their underlying trend, week after week.

This week: +3.8%
Since January: +34.0%
Long-term trend: +13.3%au-dessus

The cyclical segment remains the only one of the five markets whose state calls for no qualification: it is advancing and its underlying slope is working in its favour. This solidity describes real economic activity; it says nothing about what the following week will bring.

What would change the reading A slide bringing the curve back below its long-term orientation would shift the reading.

Bitcoin

Transition

Bitcoin stays in Transition, neither confirmed nor broken. The clear and sustained return above its long trend that would lift the indecision has not come; its gap below that trend has even widened a little.

Bitcoin remains in Transition, below its long trend, and its gap with it has widened further.

This week: −1.3%
Since January: −28.9%
Long-term trend: −9.1%sous

Speculative appetite has not lifted its indecision: it is moving below its orientation of several months and drifting away from it. The state remains as honest as possible as long as the signals do not decide.

What would change the reading A clear and sustained return above its long trend would lift this indecision.

↑ improvement · → no significant change · ↓ deterioration

The market environment

US10Y: 4.70% +0.05pt
The long-term cost of money is edging back up, which weighs on the markets most sensitive to credit.
DXY: 99.64 +0.1%
The dollar remains stable and puts no particular pressure on what is denominated in its currency.
VIX: 14.25 −4.4%
The nervousness the market expects to go through is subsiding further.

The chart of the week

The equity rise rests on fewer companies

The relationship between the equal-weighted market and the usual market, over the period shown

What we observe

The line compares the stock market when each company carries the same weight to this same market when the largest ones carry the most. Over the period shown, it stays broadly stable, without a clear break in either direction.

Why it matters

A line that does not advance indicates that the largest companies are carrying the rise more than the whole. It is this imbalance that explains why the reading of stocks moves into Transition: the trend holds, but it rests on a narrower base.

What not to conclude

A narrower base is not a break. The line says nothing about the direction of the coming week, nor about when the other stocks might take part in the movement again.

Weekly data, as at the publication date.

The discipline of the week

The only movement of the week lies in equities: what supported their reading has shifted without giving way.

The condition set last week for equities has been partly met: their reading has changed without the curve falling below its long-term orientation. It is the shift, and not a break, that tipped the verdict.

Nothing else has changed state, but the positions remain uneven: commodities alone hold above their underlying trend, while gold and government bonds each remain below for their own reasons.

The conditions noted for gold, bonds and Bitcoin have not been met: none has regained a footing above its long trend, and for Bitcoin the gap has even widened.

The week settles nothing: it weakens one support without breaking any. The discipline it calls for is to distinguish a shift from a reversal, and not to read into a reading that slips what it does not yet say.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.

They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.