Witan Way

The Sunday Charter

Stocks move ahead, gold stays under pressure

The week's change comes down to one point: US stocks have firmed and their reading is improving. Around them, gold and government bonds remain in difficulty, while commodities and Bitcoin do not shift at all. The search for safety is receding, without settling anything.

N° 18 · Semaine close le 9 août 2026 · 6 minutes

This week in 30 seconds

What holds

Only stocks change their tilt this week: their reading is improving.

The four other markets keep the state of the previous week.

What changes

Gold and government bonds both remain under pressure, but for distinct reasons.

The classic refuge and the shock absorber are struggling at the same time.

What to watch

The nervousness expected by the market is easing.

It is a calmer climate, not a guarantee about what comes next.

The market compass

The five markets at a glance

Equities

Constructive

Stocks remain above their long trend and that trend is working for them. It is the only market whose reading is improving compared with last week.

Equities rise over the week and remain above their long-term trend.

This week: +3.5%
Since January: +13.8%
Long-term trend: +10.4%au-dessus

Their reading improves compared with last week, a sign that the underlying trend is working again in their favor. The rise says nothing about what will come; it describes an engine currently running at full capacity.

What would change the reading A pullback of the curve below its long-term trend, or a rise carried by an ever narrower number of stocks, would change this reading.

Treasuries

Under pressure

Government bonds remain under pressure, a little below their long trend. Their role as a shock absorber stays little active in the current climate.

Government bonds advance slightly over the week but remain below their long-term trend.

This week: +0.6%
Since January: −0.8%
Long-term trend: −0.8%sous

Their role is to cushion, to rise when equities weaken; this week, equities and bonds advance together, which leaves the cushion little called upon. As long as they remain below their underlying trend, their capacity to protect stays diminished.

What would change the reading A lasting return above their long-term trend would restore the cushion's usual function.

Gold

Under pressure

Gold remains under pressure, below its long trend, despite a firm week. The search for safety it embodies is easing for now.

Gold rises markedly over the week while remaining below its long-term trend.

This week: +7.2%
Since January: 0.0%
Long-term trend: −3.2%sous

As a safe haven, it climbs above all when confidence recedes; here it advances while equities rise and nervousness subsides, a mix that explains why its reading stays under pressure. The week's move is not enough to bring the metal back above its underlying trend.

What would change the reading A lasting crossing above its long-term trend would change the reading.

Commodities

Constructive

Commodities remain constructive, clearly above their long trend. Their situation has not changed in any notable way.

Commodities pull back over the week but remain well above their long-term trend.

This week: −1.8%
Since January: +29.1%
Long-term trend: +10.0%au-dessus

This basket tracks real economic activity, and its holding above the underlying trend confirms a cycle still supportive despite the week's decline. An isolated pullback does not dent so high a position.

What would change the reading A slide bringing the curve below its long-term trend would tip the reading over.

Bitcoin

Transition

Bitcoin remains in transition: neither confirmation nor breakdown. It still stands below its long-term trend, with no notable movement this week.

Bitcoin gains ground over the week but remains below its long-term trend.

This week: +2.4%
Since January: −26.8%
Long-term trend: −7.5%sous

It expresses speculative appetite in its purest form and amplifies both directions; its reading remains undecided, neither confirmed nor broken. A weekly rise settles nothing while the price stays below its underlying trend.

What would change the reading A clear and sustained return above its long trend would lift this indecision.

↑ improvement · → no significant change · ↓ deterioration

The market environment

DXY: 99.60 −0.3%
The dollar edges back over the week, which eases the pressure on everything denominated in this currency.
US10Y: 4.65% −0.09pt
The long-term cost of money loosens slightly over the week.
VIX: 14.90 −6.8%
The nervousness expected by the market subsides and returns toward calm levels.

The chart of the week

US equities hold their course

The curve rises over the period shown

What we observe

Over the period shown, the US equity curve advances and holds above its underlying trend.

Why it matters

Equities are the growth engine and the first to respond to risk appetite. When this curve holds, it indicates that this appetite remains present.

What not to conclude

A curve that rises over a given period says nothing about the week ahead. It describes what has happened, not what will happen.

Données hebdomadaires, arrêtées à la date de publication.

The discipline of the week

The only thing moving this week is the slope of equities: their reading improves, everything else holds the same position as last week.

When a single market changes and four others stay stable, discipline consists in not mistaking the isolated move for an overall turn.

The two markets that usually cushion a portfolio both remain below their long trend: the safe haven and lending to the State are not playing their protective role at the moment, and this is a fact to keep in mind rather than to correct in haste.

The nervousness the market expects to go through is receding: this makes the improvement in equities more legible, but a calm climate says nothing about what the following week will do.

What would make the reading evolve: an improvement reaching one of the protective markets, or on the contrary a reversal in equities that would erase the week's only change.

How to read this

A general, impersonal and educational publication. The regimes, colours and indicators describe market conditions observed under the Witan Way methodology.

They are neither a personalised recommendation nor a signal to buy or sell. Every investment decision remains independent and the reader's own responsibility.