Edition № 17 ·
The rise holds, but is narrowing
Solid but narrower action, gold weakened, bitcoin cooled, commodities pausing.
This week in one reading
Risk appetite remains present and equities are holding above their long-term trend, but the advance is resting on a narrower set of names. This narrowing is the central signal of the week, without constituting a regime reversal.
Market pulse
| Asset | Level | Weekly | Since 1 Jan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | 747.03 | +1.1% | +9.9% |
| Gold | 371.54 | -0.1% | -6.7% |
| Commodities | 29.45 | -2.2% | +31.5% |
| Bitcoin | 63,372 | -0.8% | -28.6% |
The regime reading
This week in three points
- Stocks remain above their long-term trend, constructive regime intact.
- The rally is resting on fewer stocks: this is the deterioration to watch.
- Awaited confirmation: a return of a greater number of rising values.
| Pillar | Trend | Momentum | Coherence | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | Favourable | Neutral | Confirmed | Favourable but less broad |
| Gold | Unfavourable | Neutral | Confirmed | Weakening |
| Commodities | Favourable | Favourable | Confirmed | Inflationary push |
| Bitcoin | Unfavourable | Neutral | Confirmed | Cooling |
What changed
Compared to last week, the stock market rally is now being supported by a smaller number of stocks, whereas it had previously rested on a broader base; the weakening of gold has furthermore been confirmed.
What did not change
Equities remain above their long-term trend and appetite for risk remains present, with no shift toward a defensive regime.
What would be premature to conclude
A constructive trend excludes neither short-term consolidation nor a short-term reversal.
The weakness in gold and bitcoin is not sufficient to invalidate the favourable regime for equities; it would be premature to conclude that a broad reversal is under way simply because these two assets are declining.